P’unggye-yok
By Nick Grace
August 20, 2006

Many thanks to Bill Roggio of the Counterterrorism Blog for assistance.

Suspicious activity reported in North Korea's northeast mountains, specifically P’unggye-yok. Large reels of cable being unloaded. Activity increasing to alarming levels Thursday and Friday. Underground nuclear test feared in Washington.

"It is the view of the intelligence community that a test is a real possibility."
"senior State Department official"
ABC News, August 17, 2006

"If North Korea were to conduct a test, it's just a constant reminder, for people in the neighborhood in particular, that North Korea poses a threat; and we expect our friends and those sitting around the table with us to act in such a manner as to help rid the world of the threat."
President Bush
VOA News, August 18, 2006

"As of this moment, there has been no confirmation of movements toward a nuclear test... (But) we are closely scrutinizing the situation since excavation is being conducted deep in the mountains, and cable is piling up at the location, these don’t seem to be normal military training operations."
South Korean government "official"
Chosun Ilbo, August 18, 2006

"(Seoul is considering) every possibility, and Korea and the U.S. are discussing emergency measures. We are not taking the situation lightly."
South Korean government "official"
Chosun Ilbo, August 18, 2006

South Korea believes that North Korea is now technically capable of carrying out a nuclear test.
The Korea Herald, August 19, 2006

Searches across the major Web search engines on "P’unggye-yok" result in very little information and it appears that ABC News' report last week naming the location was the first time that this location has been leaked in the open source. The latitude and longitude (41.1308333, 129.1636111), however, is reported on the Web site earchsearch.net. Armed with that information and satellite photos that appear to have been taken in 2002 and are available on Google Earth we can see what's in the area. Clicking on the thumbnails below will launch the full-sized image in your browser.

Someone who looked at the photos with experience in aerial reconnaissance and imagery analysis said that these images appear to show underground storage facilities and barracks and that the area is too populated to serve as a location for an underground nuclear test. The photos seem to show a lot of tunnels that have been burrowed into the hills and mountain range, which he said, would collapse if a test took place. Not that these details would stop the Pyongyang elite from going ahead if that is their plan, of course.

	Image Key Photos below are shown in relation with each other. Total distance from image 1 to image 6 is 11.8 miles as the crow flies.
	Image 1 Elevation: 1450' Note: This is the precise view of 41.1308333, 129.1636111. A frozen river crosses through the center of the photograph. To its east is what appears to be a collection of military barracks and a small dirt road that heads north up into the mountains. To its west, more encampments, a railway and a rail depot. More on the rail depot in the next image.
	Image 1a Elevation: 1450' Note: This is a closer view of the rail depot. Two trains are visible and it appears that grain has been unloaded.
	Image 2 Elevation: 1634' Note: Following the dirt road 1.6 miles north of the rail depot is what appears to be a fortified concrete bunker that's been carved into an outlying hill. More structures branch off of the road and although the entrance to the bunker is rather large access appears to be through foot trails. The dirt road continues on northward and winds higher into the mountains.
	Image 3 Elevation: 2560' Note: Six miles up the dirt road from the starting point, and passing numerous clusters of structures and camps, it branches off to a side road where a strange set of white buildings sits. Behind it is a cleared rectangular area.
	Image 4 Elevation: 2560' Note: To the west of the white buildings is another encampment. The side road appears to lead to an underground passageway.
	Image 5 Elevation: 4000' Note: Continuing north on the main dirt road, and past more clusters of structures and camps, we come upon this interesting structure, which appears to be a missile battery (based on other battery sites visible on Google Earth in North Korea).
	Image 6 Elevation: 4500' Note: The dirt road appears to end in this image, probably leading to another underground bunker or passageway. There does not seem to be other holes or roads elsewhere in this vicinity where this road would exit. Directly north of this location is a 7000' mountain.

Based on the satellite photography and the visible presence of tunnels and encampments, therefore, P’unggye-yok does not seem to be a likely locale for an underground nuclear test.